CATL announced after the market close that the company plans to invest in the Hungarian Era new energy battery industry base project in Debrecen, Hungary, with a total investment of no more than 7.34 billion euros (equivalent to approximately RMB 50.9 billion). The construction content is a 100GWh power battery system production line. The total construction period is expected to be no more than 64 months, and the first factory building will be constructed in 2022 after obtaining relevant approvals.
Regarding CATL (300750)’s choice to build a factory in Hungary, the relevant person in charge of the company recently told reporters from the Associated Press that the local industry has good supporting facilities and is convenient for the procurement of battery raw materials. It is also located in the heart of Europe and has gathered a large number of vehicle companies, which is convenient for CATL in a timely manner. Respond to customer needs. The good environment of the city has also provided great development assistance for CATL’s investment and construction of factories in Hungary.
According to the latest news from the CATL WeChat public account, the industrial base is located in the southern industrial park of Debrecen, a city in eastern Hungary, covering an area of 221 hectares. It is close to the OEMs of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Stellantis, Volkswagen and other customers. It will manufacture cars for Europe. Manufacturers produce battery cells and module products. In addition, Mercedes-Benz will be the new plant’s first and largest customer at its initial production capacity.
This is also the second factory built by CATL in Europe after the factory in Germany. It is understood that Ningde Times currently has ten major production bases in the world, and there is only one overseas in Thuringia, Germany. The factory started construction on October 18, 2019, with a planned production capacity of 14GWh. It has obtained an 8GWH battery production license. Currently, It is in the equipment installation stage and the first batch of batteries will roll off the production line before the end of 2022.
According to monthly data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance on August 11, the total domestic power battery installed capacity reached 24.2GWh in July, a year-on-year increase of 114.2%. Among them, CATL ranks firmly among the domestic power battery companies in terms of installed vehicle volume, with installed vehicle volume reaching 63.91GWh from January to July, with a market share of 47.59%. BYD ranked second with a market share of 22.25%.
According to statistics from the Advanced Industrial Research Institute (GGII), domestic new energy vehicle production is expected to reach 6 million units in 2022, which will drive power battery shipments to exceed 450GWh; global new energy vehicle production and sales will exceed 8.5 million units, which will drive power battery shipments. With demand exceeding 650GWh, China will still be the world’s largest power battery market; conservatively estimated, GGII expects global power battery shipments to reach 1,550GWh by 2025, and is expected to reach 3,000GWh in 2030.
According to a research report by Yingda Securities on June 24, CATL has deployed 10 production bases globally and has joint ventures with car companies to produce a total planned production capacity of more than 670GWh. With the Guizhou base, Xiamen base and others starting construction one after another, it is expected that the production capacity will exceed 400Gwh by the end of 2022, and the annual effective shipping capacity will exceed 300GWh.
Based on the forecast of lithium battery demand driven by the outbreak of the global new energy vehicle and energy storage market, Yingda Securities assumes that CATL’s global battery shipments have a 30% market share. It is expected that CATL’s lithium battery sales in 2022-2024 will reach 280GWh/473GWh respectively. /590GWh, of which power battery sales were 244GWh/423GWh/525GWh respectively.
When the supply of raw materials picks up after 2023, battery prices will adjust back down. It is estimated that the sales unit price of power and energy storage batteries from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.9 yuan/Wh, 0.85 yuan/Wh, and 0.82 yuan/Wh respectively. The revenue of power batteries will be 220.357 billion yuan, 359.722 billion yuan, and 431.181 billion yuan respectively. The ratios are 73.9%/78.7%/78.8% respectively. The growth rate of power battery revenue is expected to reach 140% this year, and the growth rate will begin to slow down in 23-24 years.
Some people in the industry believe that CATL is currently under “a lot of pressure.” From the perspective of installed capacity alone, CATL still holds the “top spot” in the domestic power battery track with a large advantage. However, if we look at market share, It seems that its advantages are slowly weakening.
Relevant data shows that in the first half of 2022, although CATL achieved a market share of 47.57%, it decreased by 1.53pct compared with 49.10% in the same period last year. On the other hand, BYD (002594) and Sino-Singapore Airlines have a market share of 47.57%. From 14.60% and 6.90% in the same period last year, they increased to 21.59% and 7.58% in the first half of this year.
In addition, CATL was in the dilemma of “increasing revenue without increasing profits” in the first quarter of this year. The net profit in the first quarter of this year was 1.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62%. This is the first time CATL has been listed since its listing in June 2018. , the first quarter in which net profit fell year-on-year, and gross profit margin dropped to 14.48%, a new low in 2 years.
Post time: Nov-09-2023